13 Apr That could squeeze businesses there
Investors Are Gripped by a Panic Last Seen in 2008
LONDON First came the shock. Then fear seized world markets. As frenzied selling accelerated in Tokyo, Hong Kong and London, unfathomable amounts of wealth vanished in a matter of hours.
In crudest outlines, the panic that followed Britain’s vote to cheap moncler jackets womens quit the European Union traced the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers, an event that turned an unfolding financial crisis into the bleakest economic downturn since the Great Depression. The similarities hung uneasily over markets on Friday, presenting a grim question: How ugly might things get?
As economists pored over the rout like accident investigators dispatched to the scene of a crash, most offered assurances that a Lehman style financial panic was not unfolding. In that debacle, investors indiscriminately fled all assets connected to the disastrous American housing bubble. Mortgages had been carved into exotic investments and peddled around the globe, meaning they lurked everywhere. moncler outlet store Distrust spread like a virus.
This time, the source of the trouble is both identifiable and relatively confined. Britain and the 27 remaining members of the European Union face significant uncertainty in their economic and financial dealings as they embark on complex divorce proceedings.
“As of now, this doesn’t look like an end of the world event,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, an independent research organization. “It looks bad, but it’s not a cataclysmic moncler sale game changer similar to Lehman.” Then he paused. “Yet.”
In the best case, the plunge in uk moncler sale markets represents an abrupt adjustment to the changing geography of global commerce. Britain moncler online store has been diminished as a place for banking and business, and so the pound has lost some luster.
In the worst case, investors have begun a fearful march away from risk, cheap moncler coats mens potentially starving emerging markets and stripping European countries of needed moncler sale outlet capital. It could last as long as the uncertainties dogging Europe perhaps years.
If recent traumas have clarified anything, it is the tendency for trouble to emerge unexpectedly. The global financial system is so intertwined that links can remain opaque.
One key factor undergirds confidence that the so called Brexit will not deliver Lehman like troubles. In 2008, central banks moncler outlet woodbury on both sides of the Atlantic failed to recognize the mounting disaster. They failed to prepare adequate relief. While people may argue over the degree to which regulators have tamed the speculative excesses of finance, few dispute that improvements have been delivered. Posen, a former member of the rate setting committee at the Bank of England and now president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “The proclivity to panic in ways that create financial instability are much more limited.”
The Bank of England and the European Central Bank have tools they can wield to defuse threats to banks. They can simply cheap moncler jackets mens print money and lend it out as needed.
Less than an hour after markets opened in London on Friday, Britain’s central bank governor, Mark J. Carney, stood before television cameras and struck a resolute pose as he promised to do what it took to cheap moncler jackets stabilize markets. He announced that he was prepared to unleash another 250 billion (about $370 billion) in pursuit of financial tranquillity.
“We expect institutions to draw on this funding if and when appropriate,” Mr. Carney said. “The bank will assess economic conditions and uk moncler outlet will consider any additional policy responses.”
Those words appeared to assuage fears, as the pound and stock prices both pared their losses.
In recent years, the Federal Reserve in the United States, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank have subjected financial institutions to so called stress tests. They regularly scrutinize banks’ portfolios and the money they hold in reserve to make sure they can hold up in various outbreaks of trouble.
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These tests have been welcomed by economists as a helpful addition to the warning system. Just this discount moncler jackets week, major American banks all gained passing cheap moncler sale grades.
Yet, moncler outlet these are academic exercises.
“This is the real stress test,” said Simon Johnson, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund and a professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management.
The immediate run on stocks and currencies might yet grow into something worse, shaking consumer confidence and prompting households to limit their spending. monlcer down jackets As businesses lose profit opportunities, they are likely to put off investing and hiring.
If that happens, it could create a spiral ending in moncler outlet prices recession, both in Britain and across Europe, adding to pressure on banks. The markets seemed to be warning of this possibility as they savaged the value of banking stocks on Friday.
The triumph of the Brexit campaign has also invigorated separatist inclinations elsewhere, in Scotland, the Netherlands and beyond.
The greater the odds that the European Union will splinter, the more investors are likely to demand extra payouts for fresh loans to debt saturated countries like Greece, Italy and Portugal. That could squeeze businesses there, making it harder moncler womens jackets for them to borrow, https://www.cheapmoncler.com further crimping their economies.
“That could then spread to the banks moncler outlet online and go global, and that could smell like a Lehman,” said Markus Schomer, chief economist for PineBridge Investments, a global asset management firm. He put very low odds on this “referendum contagion” case.
If history is a guide, hedge funds, private equity and other realms of finance will also suffer. There, aggressive players borrow enormous moncler usa sums of money to place outsize bets. Crises have previously revealed those taking on outsize risk. Long Term moncler uk outlet Capital Management, which borrowed heavily, appeared robust before losses in the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s brought it to the verge of a collapse that threatened the broader financial system and required a private bailout.
As the prominent investor Warren E. Buffett once put it, “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”
Those who had been paying attention to the American housing best moncler jackets crisis were hardly surprised when Lehman’s afflictions burst into public view. Lenders moncler outlet sale had been writing mortgages to seemingly anyone in possession of a signature. Lehman had been repackaging these loans and selling them for vast profits.
The surprise was that Lehman actually went bankrupt, exposing its trading partners to losses. By contrast, polls had suggested that Britain might really walk. This is a source of hope, given that central banks, governments and investors had more time to prepare.